Volcano seismicity in the laboratory

Article By:

Benson, Philip M. Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom.

Last reviewed:2010

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1036/1097-8542.YB100208

There are some 600 volcanoes on the Earth that are known to have erupted in historical time, with nearly 500 million people currently living on an edifice or nearby. Improved understanding of volcanic mechanisms is therefore a central goal in volcano-tectonic research and hazard mitigation. Although sophisticated techniques are available for monitoring volcanoes, there is still no universally accepted quantitative physical model for determining whether or not a sequence of precursory phenomena will end in an eruption or for forecasting the time or the type of eruption, such as relatively benign effusive volcanism (for example, Mauna Loa, Hawaii), devastating and explosive plinian eruption (for example, Vesuvius, AD 79), or flank collapse (for example, St. Helens, 1980). With the advent of modern portable broadband seismology, GPS (Global Positioning System), and laser/satellite surveying, seismicity and ground deformation are now the most common types of monitoring technology, complementing more traditional geochemical indicators in assessing volcanic unrest. Seismic monitoring has been used with great success to forecast and analyze eruptive episodes in numerous settings, and is arguably the most important method. Although our understanding of the processes driving these observations has increased substantially, a key part of the forecasting challenge is similar to that experienced with earthquakes; often, very little data can be observed before a catastrophic main eruption, and so novel and innovative statistical strategies are required to arrive at a failure forecast. Central to these strategies is the application of fundamental rock mechanics in assessing the failure of the rock mass (analyzed as the seismic event rate), whether driven by tectonic stresses or volcanically driven fluid pressures.

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